They released flocks of white doves, hung banners from buildings, performed a traditional Bedouin sword dance and waved national flags to welcome Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah home Wednesday, after he spent three months away recovering from back surgery. The frail 86-year-old monarch, who was rushed to the United States in November to undergo emergency surgery for a herniated spinal disc and a blood clot, returned to a transformed Middle East. His kingdom now feels threatened by revolutions that have swept across neighbouring Yemen and Bahrain, toppled leaders in Egypt and Tunisia, plunged Libya into civil war and unsettled governments in Morocco, Algeria, Jordan and Iran. In a desperate bid to stave off similar protests at home, the King announced $37-billion in new public spending, giving all government employees a 15% pay raise and dramatically increasing spending on social welfare programs, housing and education. Under new decrees, the unemployed in Saudi Arabia will get financial aid for a year, while prisoners jailed for failing to pay off loans were released and needy students attending university were told they would get more money. Saturday was also declared a national holiday to celebrate the King’s safe return. Experts say the sudden largesse is an attempt to defuse discontent and deflect demands for reform. “They are trying to enlarge the pool of benefits, given what is happening in the broader Middle East,” said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi in Riyadh. “The message from King Abdullah is that he is aware of the challenges facing the economy and steps are being taken to address immediate and more medium-term issues.” Unlike most of the states in trouble, Saudi Arabia can afford to spend some of the US$400-billion in oil money it has stashed away to create jobs, encourage business and attract investment. Still, the fact remains that the generational divide which has driven much of the turmoil in the rest of the Arab world is nowhere more evident than in Saudi Arabia: 47% of its 19 million citizens are 18 or younger, and nearly 40% of all Saudis aged 20-24 are unemployed. In contrast, their rulers are senior citizens. King Abdullah’s designated successor, Crown Prince Sultan, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister for 50 years, is 83 and has cancer, while and the Interior Minister, Prince Nayef, the king’s half-brother and second deputy prime minister, is 76. King Abdullah’s age and poor health have raised concerns internationally over a potential leadership crisis in a country that controls 25% of the world’s oil. Given everything else that is going on in the Middle East, the last thing anyone wants is a sudden political vacuum in Saudi Arabia, which could trigger a political and economic tsunami in the region. With no elected parliament or political parties, power in the kingdom has traditionally been passed between the many sons of the country’s founder, King Abdul-Aziz ibn Saud, who died in 1953. He had at least 37 sons by 22 wives. As a result, there are now hundreds of possible claimants to the Saudi throne. In the past, the right of succession was thrashed out in private among leading princes. King Abdullah came to the throne in 2005 after the death of his half-brother King Fahd. But he had been the de facto ruler for almost 15 years after King Fahd had a stroke. King Abdullah realized the death of a Saudi king without an acknowledged and agreed-on line of succession could plunge his traditional and tribal nation into a bitter clan war. In 2006 he created an “allegiance council” of senior princes, charged with ensuring a consensus on who becomes crown prince. “The new procedure is more like the selection of a Roman Catholic pope, chosen in a secret conclave by princes of the church,” said Thomas Lippman, a Middle East scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Just as some cardinals are deemed papabile, or suitable to become the pontiff in the event of a vacancy, a handful of the many sons and grandsons of Saudi Arabia’s founding king are understood to be in the running as future kings. “Only no one outside the House of Saud has any real knowledge of who might be on the list,” he added. That uncertainty sits poorly with young Saudis, who have just had their first taste of revolution. Echoing uprisings that toppled the rulers of Tunisia and Egypt, Saudi activists are calling for economic reforms to create more jobs and political reforms, including free elections, freedom for women and the release of political prisoners. They have set up a Facebook page calling for a Saudi “Day of Rage” on March 11. King Abdullah’s office responded by creating its own Facebook page, where citizens are invited to present their grievances directly to the King with the click of a mouse. Saudi Arabia has no tradition of dissent. Political parties and public protests are banned, women cannot travel alone and only one election (in 2005 for municipal offices) has ever been held. Now, there are signs of simmering discontent. A group of 40 journalists and human rights activists marked King Abdullah’s homecoming by releasing an open letter, asking for elections for the advisory Shura Council, the right of women to vote and stand as candidates, and a crackdown on corruption. They also demanded the king reshuffle his cabinet so the average age of ministers is reduced to 40, from 65. King Abdullah might try to meet some of their demands. He is already due to shuffle his cabinet, since the terms of several ministers expired last Saturday. But that might not be enough to avoid the troubles visited on neighbouring states. “Basically, what the King is doing is good, but it’s an old message of using oil money to buy the silence, subservience and submission of the people,” Mai Yamani, a Middle East expert with London’s Chatham House think-tank, told Reuters news agency. “The new generation of revolution is surrounding them from everywhere.”
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