Zardari Re-emerges, but Effect on Pakistan Is Unclear

For the first time in months, President Asif Ali Zardari is doing what presidents normally do — giving rousing speeches, traveling around the country and asserting himself publicly as the country’s chief official. This is unusual behavior for a leader who rarely left the presidential palace, except to travel abroad, and hunkered down in silence under a barrage of media criticism for months last year, leading many to conclude that he was losing his grip on power. “The doomsday scenario has not come to pass,” said Cyril Almeida, a columnist for Dawn, an English-language daily newspaper. It now seems more likely that Mr. Zardari will survive in power. But he remains a weak, unpopular leader, leaving the larger question for Pakistan unchanged: When will its elected leaders be capable of solving the vast assortment of crushing economic, security and social problems facing the country? It is an urgent question, too, for the Obama administration, which is depending on cooperation from Pakistan, its prickly ally, to help carry out its new war strategy for neighboring Afghanistan. Pakistan’s western mountains are a sanctuary for militants, and the administration has been pressing Pakistan to do more to flush them out. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates will visit Pakistan on Thursday for that reason. While Mr. Zardari has been receptive to American overtures, championing the war against militants far earlier than any of his political opponents, his weakness has hobbled his ability to effectively defend the American policies he supports, like last year’s large American aid package. As a result, American officials continue to rely heavily on their relationship with the country’s powerful military, a tradition that goes back decades, but that also serves to undermine the Obama administration’s goal of strengthening democracy here. Mr. Zardari started his campaign on Dec. 27 in the province of Sindh. He then traveled to Baluchistan, a western province, and this week he has been in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province. He will travel next to Peshawar, the beleaguered capital of Pakistan’s war-torn North-West Frontier Province, his spokesman said. Newspapers took notice. Daily Times, an English-language daily newspaper, went so far as to say in an editorial on Saturday: “All the hopes of the Zardari bashers have crashed to the ground.” But while Mr. Zardari may have reclaimed some political space, rallying the grass roots of his party, and seizing headlines that even one month ago had belonged to voices hostile to him, many analysts see his belated outreach as a last-ditch attempt to fend off his enemies and salvage his presidency. “He’s come to the conclusion that if judiciary or the military want to knock him out, they can,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, an analyst in Lahore. “But he wants to fight back. That has given him a new lease on life, but his basic problem remains the same.” The most serious of those vulnerabilities has always been his strained relationship with Pakistan’s military, a powerful institution whose leaders have ruled the country for about half of Pakistan’s 62-year history. When he took office in September 2008, Mr. Zardari struck a conciliatory tone with India, the military’s nemesis. He angered the military again when he indicated that intelligence should be under civilian control. He has since backed off those positions. This month he offered remarks praising the army. He removed another irritant in December, giving civilian control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal to his prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, a pliable leader more palatable to the military. But another potential for confrontation looms this year, when the army chief’s term expires, as the power to appoint a new one is Mr. Zardari’s. Perhaps the most immediate threat to Mr. Zardari, analysts said, comes from Pakistan’s top judge, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who gained national popularity by taking up the causes of human rights and fighting corruption.

In December, his court threw out an amnesty that shielded hundreds of powerful Pakistanis from corruption prosecutions, including Mr. Zardari and a number of his allies, opening the door for corruption cases against them. Mr. Zardari’s supporters argue that as president he retains immunity under the Constitution. Chief Justice Chaudhry’s critics, including a prominent human rights activist, say he has overstepped his mandate and is using his popularity to meddle in politics, a charge he denies. Another clash is likely to come soon over the appointment of Supreme Court judges, analysts said. “You have the judiciary emerging as a real force with populist ambitions,” said Najam Sethi, editor in chief of The Friday Times. “That is creating a huge gridlock.” He added, “A clash between Zardari and the judiciary is very likely now.” One possible effect is that Mr. Zardari will simply shrink to insignificance by giving up the expanded powers he inherited from former President Pervez Musharraf, something he promised to do during his political campaign. Those powers have proved to be more a liability than an asset, becoming a lightning rod for Mr. Zardari’s opponents, including former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who have demanded that the president relinquish them and restore Pakistan’s parliamentary system. So far, Mr. Sharif has refused to join the chorus of voices calling for Mr. Zardari’s resignation. But his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, chief minister of Punjab Province, has taken a harder line. The Sharifs were conspicuously absent during Mr. Zardari’s visit to Punjab. In recent weeks, all the provincial assemblies, except Punjab’s, issued resolutions supporting Mr. Zardari. Unlike in other times in Pakistan’s politics, it seems unlikely, at least for now, that Mr. Zardari’s political opponents will be his undoing. In a nation with a long history of military coups, even his most ardent critics want to see civilian governance survive. Strangely, Mr. Zardari’s weakness may serve him in the end. The army seems to have less appetite to re-enter politics directly, having seen its reputation badly tarnished during Mr. Musharraf’s years of military rule. A weak civilian leader, on the other hand, presents no threat to its power.